Johns Hopkins University researchers have casted some doubt on a recent study that estimated the annual Sturgis motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota that took place last month led to more than 260,000 new cases of coronavirus throughout the country. While the researchers do not doubt that the event led to an increase in cases, it does question some of the models the study used to arrive at the 260,000 number, which researchers say are “relatively weak.”
The study in question was released last week by four economists from the Center for Health Economics and Policy Studies at San Diego State University and also found that the Sturgis rally caused more than $12 billion in health care costs covering the increased infections. The study has garnered extensive attention from both supporters and rejecters including South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, who declined to restrict the event and called the study “fiction.”
In a paper released last Friday, the Johns Hopkins Researchers call out several facets of the study to explain why some of the staggering results should be “interpreted cautiously,” including:
- Not comparing “geographic areas that were hit by coronavirus infections from Sturgis with other nearby areas”
- Not acknowledging the increase in testing leading up to the rally, which could “explain the jump in reported cases”
- Failing to “reflect that the costs of treating people with COVID-19 can vary widely around the country”
Discussing the San Diego State University’s study, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Associate Dean Elizabeth Stuart said, “There is evidence in that paper that Sturgis increased infections across the United States. But do I believe that number is 200,000 or more? I am not sure.”
Meanwhile Joseph Sabia, a co-author of the San Diego study, stood by the report’s findings and the work from his colleagues. “We believe our evidence is compelling that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was the cause of this spike,” Sabia told CBS MoneyWatch. “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stated that large in-person gatherings of individuals who do not socially distance and who have traveled from outside the local area are at ‘highest risk’ for COVID-19 spread. The Sturgis Rally had all of these elements on steroids.”
Adding to the concern around this year’s Sturgis rally were the live concerts from hard rock bands like Smash Mouth, Trapt and Fozzy. Photos of the concerts showed very few people in the audience maintaining social distance or wearing masks.
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